In the past two years, with the closure of the most popular track "online education" and the strong supervision of "community group buying", the industry has to rely on Zuckerberg's concept of the metaverse to continue the dream. The old growth model is no longer so effective. In the 2021 Q3 financial report, Pinduoduo’s operating income is 21.5 billion, far less than the market’s expected 26.5 billion. The most imaginative sinking market can’t hold more tens of billions of dreams. In the same period, overseas e-commerce Shopee (Southeast Asian e-commerce) reached 1.7 billion orders in Q3, a year-on-year increase of 123.2%, and has maintained triple-digit growth for nine consecutive quarters. The story of the global mobile Internet continues, but the market ceiling of 1.4 billion Chinese is clearly visible. Everyone is asking the same question: "Where is the next outlet"? "Finding the wind" is the path dependence we have experienced in the past, but in fact, the IPO is not the end of the company. Everyone has to go through the trough of the cycle and face operating pressures other than growth. If Chinese companies want to truly surpass a top company like Procter & Gamble for 185 years, it is the only way to go through the cycle.
The "new framework" of Internet people crossing the cycle Photo: Procter & Gamble was founded in Ohio in 1837. It has been 185 years. It has many world-renowned consumer products such as Head & Shoulders, Braun, Shufujia, Pampers, Tide, Gillette, SK-II, etc. During the period, it has experienced several US economic crises. As Internet practitioners, we are Phone Number List also going through cycles. In the future, whether choosing a company or doing a specific business, it is necessary to iterate the cognitive framework to adapt to the new era. I summarize it as "focus on the core and learn to settle accounts". 1. Focus on the core: understand the essence of Douyin When discussing "infinite games", Wang Xing mentioned: Compared with boundaries, those constant things (the core) are more important. Meituan defines the core as "Who do we serve? What services do we provide?" This is the underlying logic of Meituan's development of diversified businesses (Food+Platform).
Don't look forward to the wind blowing pigs, as Wu Shichun warned entrepreneurs: "The time of passion is over, and the era of picking drooping fruit is a thing of the past. You need to accumulate small wins to accumulate big wins." Let's take Douyin as an example. A national product with 600 million DAUs will continue to grow. What is its core? How will its boundaries change? As a short video platform, Douyin's business logic can be briefly described as: through continuous operation of high-quality content, optimization of recommendation and holding algorithms, and continuous expansion of the scale of content creators and consumers, the average daily viewing time of short video products is around 100min. 600 million DAU means that 60 billion minutes of content is exposed every day, and a certain percentage of advertising content and e-commerce business are mixed into it to form a closed business loop. From the perspective of growth, we need to ① attract new users, ② retain old users, and ③ wake up silent users. A true national-level content product, even if it is a niche at the beginning, must eventually be compatible with the diverse preferences of the public. From the results, it is reflected in the diversity of content and the prosperity of creators.